🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers improving together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still